Please note: has halted trading on these contracts. Thus, these are the final results.

Of interest to some: Archives of this site are available here.
The data which has been used to make these projections is available here, in a 1.3mb tab-separated values text file
Individual date/time data sets can be downloaded (in TSV format) Here.
An animated map, displaying the electoral map below as it was on each day from the 10th of August through November 2nd can be viewed here.
Congratulations to Mr. Bush and his supporters, and thank you all for your interest.

The Map
Winner: No Projection (No Majority)
Last Update: help
Bush EVs:
Kerry EVs:
Unprojected EVs: 0
National EV-weighted Bid Price Drift: help 0
Battle Ground EV-weighted Bid Price Drift: help 0
Expected Bush EVs: help 538
Expected Kerry EVs: help
24-hour Volume: help
  view options
State Winner Bid Price Prev. Bid Price Bid Price Change EVs EV-weighted change 24-hour Volume

The Source

TradeSports Exchange Ltd is an online marketplace that trades contracts on various assertions, including contracts on political races. Its brick and mortar location is in Dublin Ireland. It is similar to a sports betting website but operates more like a futures market. The data for this projection comes from the state-by-state contracts for the assertion "George W. Bush to win this state in the November 2004 Election." A point costs $0.10 and a winning contract pays $10. In other words, the results depicted here are the collective judgments of a nation of bettors who are willing to put their money where their mouth is.

The Methodology

In this analysis, the following assumptions are made by default:

  • A bid price of 0-45 is a bid for Kerry
  • A bid price of 55-100 is a bid for Bush
  • A bid price of 45-55 is considered neutral and cannot be projected

    Each of these bounds are configurable. Choose the "View Options" link in the "Summary" table to set your own parameters. The electoral vote-weighted bid price is computed by multiplying the quotient of bid price / 100 by the state's total electoral votes. The national electoral vote-weighted bid price drift is the 24-hour change in the sum of the EV-weighted bid price for all states. Battle ground electoral vote weighted bid price drift is the same as the national EV-weighted bid price drift, except this figure is only calculated for states which fall within the (user-defined, or default) neutrality bounds.

    If you have any questions or notice any errors or innacuracies, please drop me a line

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