Please note: TradeSports.com has halted trading on these contracts. Thus, these are the final results.

Of interest to some: Archives of this site are available here.
The data which has been used to make these projections is available here, in a 1.3mb tab-separated values text file
Individual date/time data sets can be downloaded (in TSV format) Here.
An animated map, displaying the electoral map below as it was on each day from the 10th of August through November 2nd can be viewed here.
Congratulations to Mr. Bush and his supporters, and thank you all for your interest.

The Map
Summary
Winner: John F. Kerry
Last Update: help
Bush EVs: 227
Kerry EVs: 311
Unprojected EVs: 0
National EV-weighted Bid Price Drift: help Kerry +33.66
Battle Ground EV-weighted Bid Price Drift: help 0
Expected Bush EVs: help 234
Expected Kerry EVs: help 304
24-hour Volume: help 39662
  view options
State Winner Bid Price Prev. Bid Price Bid Price Change EVs EV-weighted change 24-hour Volume
1 ALABAMA Bush 92.00 95.00 -3 9 -0.27 53
2 ALASKA Bush 95.80 97.00 -1.2 3 -0.036 13
3 ARIZONA Bush 89.00 88.00 1 10 0.1 583
4 ARKANSAS Bush 72.60 83.10 -10.5 6 -0.63 623
5 CALIFORNIA Kerry 0.90 3.20 -2.3 55 -1.265 405
6 COLORADO Bush 66.00 74.50 -8.5 9 -0.765 2000
7 CONNECTICUT Kerry 1.70 2.30 -0.6 7 -0.042 347
8 DC Kerry 0.40 0.10 0.3 3 0.009 2
9 DELAWARE Kerry 2.20 5.00 -2.8 3 -0.084 293
10 FLORIDA Kerry 37.00 55.10 -18.1 27 -4.887 4000
11 GEORGIA Bush 92.00 95.20 -3.2 15 -0.48 41
12 HAWAII Kerry 14.80 25.00 -10.2 4 -0.408 2000
13 IDAHO Bush 96.00 96.00 0 4 0 5
14 ILLINOIS Kerry 1.70 3.00 -1.3 21 -0.273 1010
15 INDIANA Bush 93.30 95.20 -1.9 11 -0.209 132
16 IOWA Kerry 31.00 50.60 -19.6 7 -1.372 1071
17 KANSAS Bush 91.00 96.00 -5 6 -0.3 30
18 KENTUCKY Bush 94.10 95.40 -1.3 8 -0.104 69
19 LOUISIANA Bush 96.00 95.10 0.9 9 0.081 12
20 MAINE Kerry 1.10 4.50 -3.4 4 -0.136 206
21 MARYLAND Kerry 1.50 3.00 -1.5 10 -0.15 261
22 MASSACHUSETTS Kerry 0.10 0.40 -0.3 12 -0.036 16
23 MICHIGAN Kerry 3.60 22.50 -18.9 17 -3.213 2000
24 MINNESOTA Kerry 7.50 29.20 -21.7 10 -2.17 2000
25 MISSISSIPPI Bush 94.10 94.20 -0.1 6 -0.006 94
26 MISSOURI Bush 80.00 83.00 -3 11 -0.33 1041
27 MONTANA Bush 98.00 96.80 1.2 3 0.036 7
28 NEBRASKA Bush 94.80 95.20 -0.4 5 -0.02 6
29 NEVADA Bush 61.50 74.00 -12.5 5 -0.625 1000
30 NEWHAMPSHIRE Kerry 27.00 31.00 -4 4 -0.16 1245
31 NEWJERSEY Kerry 5.60 11.00 -5.4 15 -0.81 2000
32 NEWMEXICO Kerry 41.10 60.50 -19.4 5 -0.97 1000
33 NEWYORK Kerry 0.50 1.40 -0.9 31 -0.279 43
34 NORTHCAROLINA Bush 85.10 91.00 -5.9 15 -0.885 411
35 NORTHDAKOTA Bush 95.00 95.20 -0.2 3 -0.006 8
36 OHIO Kerry 38.00 51.10 -13.1 20 -2.62 8000
37 OKLAHOMA Bush 97.50 95.00 2.5 7 0.175 1
38 OREGON Kerry 6.60 11.70 -5.1 7 -0.357 44
39 PENNSYLVANIA Kerry 7.00 30.00 -23 21 -4.83 3000
40 RHODEISLAND Kerry 0.10 0.40 -0.3 4 -0.012 31
41 SOUTHCAROLINA Bush 91.00 95.00 -4 8 -0.32 78
42 SOUTHDAKOTA Bush 85.00 95.20 -10.2 3 -0.306 58
43 TENNESSEE Bush 85.00 93.10 -8.1 11 -0.891 129
44 TEXAS Bush 95.00 96.00 -1 34 -0.34 4
45 UTAH Bush 96.00 95.50 0.5 5 0.025 3
46 VERMONT Kerry 0.70 0.10 0.6 3 0.018 16
47 VIRGINIA Bush 88.80 87.50 1.3 13 0.169 1306
48 WASHINGTON Kerry 2.10 5.00 -2.9 11 -0.319 469
49 WESTVIRGINIA Bush 80.00 89.00 -9 5 -0.45 494
50 WISCONSIN Kerry 16.00 45.10 -29.1 10 -2.91 2000
51 WYOMING Bush 95.20 95.20 0 3 0 2

The Source

TradeSports Exchange Ltd is an online marketplace that trades contracts on various assertions, including contracts on political races. Its brick and mortar location is in Dublin Ireland. It is similar to a sports betting website but operates more like a futures market. The data for this projection comes from the state-by-state contracts for the assertion "George W. Bush to win this state in the November 2004 Election." A point costs $0.10 and a winning contract pays $10. In other words, the results depicted here are the collective judgments of a nation of bettors who are willing to put their money where their mouth is.

The Methodology

In this analysis, the following assumptions are made by default:

  • A bid price of 0-45 is a bid for Kerry
  • A bid price of 55-100 is a bid for Bush
  • A bid price of 45-55 is considered neutral and cannot be projected

    Each of these bounds are configurable. Choose the "View Options" link in the "Summary" table to set your own parameters. The electoral vote-weighted bid price is computed by multiplying the quotient of bid price / 100 by the state's total electoral votes. The national electoral vote-weighted bid price drift is the 24-hour change in the sum of the EV-weighted bid price for all states. Battle ground electoral vote weighted bid price drift is the same as the national EV-weighted bid price drift, except this figure is only calculated for states which fall within the (user-defined, or default) neutrality bounds.

    If you have any questions or notice any errors or innacuracies, please drop me a line

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